Does this mean that polling firms are underestimating the vote of young voters? Am I onto something or a I talking out of my ass? I am very curious and would greatly appreciate some insight into this issue.
For quite some time I was worried that Kerry might pick Gephardt for his veep. My original reason for believing this was that Kerry had to offer Gephardt something huge in exchange for his help against Dean. The Kerry/Gephardt alliance that formed in Iowa took form first in the formation of Americans for Jobs Health care and Progressive Values(AJHPV). AJHPV was a PAC that aired anti-Dean attack ads in the run-up to January 19th. Its primary backers included both former Kerry and former Gephardt staffers. Gephardt and Dean got into a dogfight with attack ads going back and forth. These ads served to drive both candidates into the ground, and the undecided voters broke massively for Kerry and Edwards. The final event that showed the scope of the Kerry/Gephardt alliance was the decision by Gephardt's staff to move large numbers of their voters into the Kerry camp during the caucus process. The end result was Kerry winning the state, Dean coming in third, and Gephardt finishing a dismal fourth. Gephardt endorsed Kerry and the rest is history.
The thought of Gephardt as VP scares the shit out of me. A Kerry/Gephardt ticket says old-school, boring, establishment democrats. If Kerry picks Gephardt it could kill the energy that Dean injected into the Democratic party. Gephardt's core constituency, labor, is already 100% anti-bush. The Midwest has many other politicians that could help in these pivotal swing states. He also has a long voting record that the Bush campaign can paw through to find potentially hypocritical votes. Gephardt's one advantage is that he is a known quantity. He has no skeletons in the closet that haven't been exposed in his two runs for the presidency or his 20+ years in the house.
Edwards on the other hand is a new face. He brings excitement and energy back to the Democratic base. Many former deaniacs are more comfortable with Edwards than any other VP possibility. The deaniacs are too powerful a force to ignore. They are politically active, willing to donate money, and most importantly willing to volunteer.
He does however have a fairly unknown life prior to his Senate election. As a trial lawyer he may have gotten a rapist off who then raped someone else, setting the stage for a Wille Horton style attack ad.
Overall I still believe that Edwards is the best choice for Kerry.(except for Dean, Deaniacs never give up) My hope is that Kerry will recognize Gephardt as the dead weight that he is and choose someone more exciting.
McMullen was generally regarded as carpet-bagging "flatlander". The grassroots of the Republican party in VT decided they hated him and Fred Tuttle announced his canidacy.
Tuttle had starred in an independant film named "Man with a plan" as a VT farmer trying to become governor. McMullen financed his campaign personally. Tuttle held a nickle-a-plate fundraising dinner at his house. This dinner broke Tuttles pledge to not spend more than $10 dollars on his campaign because he had to rent portable toilets for the event. The toilets pushed his spending to just over $200 where it stayed for the rest of his campaign.
Tuttle won the primary 55-45, possibly due to the fact that anyone can vote in the Republican primary regardless of party affiliation.
Now Mcmullen is at it again. The conventional wisdom in VT is that he will go down in flames.
Reasons McMullen will lose the race:
1)He's still remembered as a flatlander
Everyone remembers Tuttles campaign with fondness and McMullen with outright hatred.
2) So far McMullens campaign message goes something like this:
"Patrick Leahy may seem like a good guy here in VT, but in Washington he's regarded as a contrary and difficult person to work with."
SO????
Vermonts three national Legislators are
Bernie Sanders(house-I): Possibly the most outspoken member of the house. Likes nothing better than to cause trouble in Washington, which is why we love him.
Patrick Leahy(senate-D): Has recently become an outspoken critic of the Bush administration and Republican policies in general. Raising hell with Bush's radical judicial nominations has propelled him to some national stature.
Jim Jeffords(senate-I): Quit the Republican party to become an independant when he could no longer ethically agree with the dirtection of the Republican party. Also likes to raise hell, though less than Leahy or Sanders.
And then we have > Matthew Lyon(former house rep form the 1800s): VT elected this guy from jail. He was in jail for violationg the now defunct Alien and Sedition acts that prohibited speaking ill of the current President.
With a history like this even a political dunce can see that McMullen is not going to get anywhere with this angle.
3)McMullen is tying himself to Bush policies and Bush himself:
LOL, this might go over well in Texas but in VT Bush is regarded as a right-wing nut along the lines of Strom Thurmond and Rush Limbaugh.
Barring an unprecedented MASSIVE national backlash against Democrats Leahy will cruise to an easy re-election. There is no Republican in Vermont that will ruin agaisnt him, which is why the GOoPers had to bring in a flatlander to do it. Personally I think there is no better
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